When Bits Split Atoms - Appendix

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Start Probability [1] Other Catastrophe
Start Probability [35] Nuclear War
Start Probability [64] No Catastrophe

Nuclear War [31.1] No AGI in 21C
Nuclear War [3.9] AGI in 21C
Other Catastrophe [0.1] AGI in 21C
Other Catastrophe [.9] No AGI in 21C

No Catastrophe [32] AGI in 21C
No Catastrophe [32] No AGI in 21C

AGI in 21C [18] Bad AI
AGI in 21C [18] Good AI

Bad AI [15] AI Bad Early
Bad AI [3] AI Bad Late

AI Bad Early [13.5] AI Catastrophe Includes Nukes
AI Bad Early [1.5] AI Catastrophe Excludes Nukes

AI Bad Late [1.5] AI Catastrophe Includes Nukes
AI Bad Late [1.5] AI Catastrophe Excludes Nukes